NIGERIA: Peace deal reached in Niger Delta, but will it hold?

[Im The Truth]

NIGERIA: Peace deal reached in Niger Delta, but will it hold?

This report does not necessarily reflect the views of the Pan-
African News Wire

LAGOS, 4 October (IRIN) - Ethnic militia groups in the Niger
Delta agreed a tentative peace deal with Nigeria's federal
government at the end of last week. But political
commentators and activists in the Delta said on Monday they
were sceptical that it would provide anything more than a
temporary respite to a battle which threatens the country's
lifeblood oil industry.

After three days of talks between government officials and
two rival warlords in the Delta, Moujahid Dokubo-Asari and
Ateke Tom, a deal was hammered out on Friday night to halt
the violence which has plagued the area around the oil centre
of Port Harcourt for several months.

The situation came to a head on at the beginning of last week
when Dokubo-Asari's Niger Delta People's Volunteer Force,
issued an ultimatum, warning oil companies to shut down their
operations throughout the Niger Delta by 1 October or risk
their employees becoming targets in a major new offensive
dubbed "Operation Locust Feast.".

The threat caused panic in global oil markets as traders
worried about disruption to the the flow of 2.5 million
barrels of crude per day exported by Nigeria. Prices shot to
record hights of over US$ 50 a barrel on fears the supplies
from Africa's largest oil exporter would collapse.

The turmoil prompted President Olusegun Obasanjo to invite
Dokubo-Asari, a man the government has long dismissed as a
mere gangster, for peace talks in the capital, Abuja.

Dokubo Asari admits tapping crude oil from pipelines to
finance his activities. But he describes himself as a rebel
fighting for a better deal for the Ijaw people, the largest
ethnic group in the oil-rich Delta, whose inhabitants
continue to suffer abject poverty despite the oil wealth
under their feet.

The government and the militia leaders eventually agreed that
all hostilities would cease and all militias would be
disarmed and disbanded. The accord also included a vague
commitment to work for the development of the Niger
Delta “under a just, free and equitable environment�.

But many question marks remain.

Firstly, the Nigerian government, whose troops have been
pounding the NDPVF from the air and on the ground for the
last month, did not actually sign the agreement.

Instead the government cast itself as a neutral party that
had brokered a deal between Dokubo-Asari and Tom's rival
militias. This prompted an outburst from Dokubo-Asari during
the negotiations, but in the end did not stop him signing the
deal.

Secondly, analysts said, the NDPVF demands for greater
autonomy for the Delta and a bigger share of oil revenues for
its people were not directly addressed.

Dokubo-Asari had called for Obasanjo to immediately convene
a “Sovereign National Conference� to discuss ways of giving
the eigh million Ijaws the right to self-determination as
well as a share of the oil profits.

But the final document was silent on these demands.

“I’m okay with that because for the first time the government
has agreed that we can campaign for resource control," Dokubo-
Asari told IRIN. "We have agreed tentatively to disarm, but
all the issues must be taken together, including the demands
for resource control and self-determination.�

Triumphant return to Delta

The self-styled revolutionary made a triumphant return to
Port Harcourt at the weekend, where he was greeted as a hero
by thousands of people. A crowd came to see him step out of a
government plane at the airport and others lined his route to
the city.

"Oil companies don't have a problem as long as the government
meets our demands," Dokubo-Asari told his supporters.

But some commentators predicted that if that was the case,
the shaky truce would not hold for long.

“If anyone is under the illusion that there would be peace in
the Niger Delta on account of the ceasefire agreement signed
in Abuja a few days ago, that would be a mistake,� said
Reuben Abati, a columnist for the respected Nigerian Guardian
newspaper.

“What the government has succeeded in doing is to buy time
and allay the fears of the oil multinationals,� he added.

Other activist groups in the Delta campaigning for better
access to oil profits of the world's seventh-largest
producer, said they were either suspicious of the peace deal
or dissatisfied it.

“I have not seen much in the agreement to say the core
demands of the Niger Delta people have been addressed,� said
Ledum Mitee, president of the Movement for the Survival of
Ogoni People, a civic organisation campaigning for a better
deal for the small Ogoni ethnic group.

He called on Obasanjo's government to show more sincerity and
engage in meaningful dialogue.

Activists from the Itsekiri tribe, whose gunmen have fought
deadly battles with Ijaw gangs around the oil town of Warri
in recent years, simply accused the government of caving in
to terror tactics.

“What the events show is that the capacity to unleash terror
will determine the extent of recognition one will get from
the government,� said Matthew Tsekure of the Itsekiri
National Youth Council. “It portends great danger and we’re
watching developments very carefully.�

Smokescreen?

He said the Itsekiris shared the broad vision of achieving
self-determination and greater control over oil resources in
their own area, but they feared that Dokubo-Asari was using
these issues as a “smokescreen� to gain Ijaw ascendancy over
other tribes in the region.

Oronto Douglas, a lawyer, human rights activist and
environmentalist and leading activist with the Ijaw Youths
Council, a non-violent Ijaw pressure group to which Dokubo-
Asari formerly belonged, sought to allay the Itsekiri fears.

He called on the government to increase the chances of
creating a lasting peace by broadening the dialogue to
include all those among Nigeria's 250 ethnic groups who feel
uncomfortable with the current state of the union.

“The President can use this initiative to implement the
sovereign national conference that will bring the various
nationalities, various people’s movements together to
redesign a new Nigeria that will be based on justice and good
governance,� Douglas said.

All eyes will be on the next meeting between the government
and Dokubo-Asari to see whether the militia leader's broader
demands are discussed.

Dokubo Asari said the talks were scheduled to start on 8
October.

The son of a former high court judge, Dokubo Asario went to
university to study law, but dropped out in 1988 after
converting to Islam.

He then became swept up in radical politics and came to
prominence in 2002 as president of the Ijaw Youths Council.

Dakubo-Asari told IRIN in an interview earlier this year that
he only decided to take up arms after witnessing massive
fraud in the 2003 elections, which returned Obasanjo and the
ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) for a second term of
office.

He claimed the that the governor of Rivers State, which
encompasses Port Harcourt, was offended by his lack of
support and created Ateke Tom's Niger Delta Vigilante militia
to eliminate him.

Little is known about Tom, who shuns press interviews and has
refused to make any statement on the feud between his group
and that of Dokubo-Asari. The Rivers State government has
denied any connection to Tom's group.

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